Data
dump of the first order
What
does Semicon West mean for a trade press editor? More hands shaken,
business cards exchanged, faces recognized and forgotten, new product
pitches received and presentations Powerpointed, notes taken, and
shoe rubber burnt than at any other industry event during the year.
It's a data dump of the first order, and it takes weeks, even months
to assimilate the gigareams of information we receive. Postshow cogitation
also offers a once-a-year opportunity to take the full measure of
the semiconductor manufacturing industry, from the well-trod terrain
of its economic condition and outlook to the ever-changing business
strategies of its veteran players, to those bright-eyed techno-entrepreneurs
who fuel the flames of innovation.
Market
conditions dominated conversation at the show. Despite optimism based
on tightened manufacturing capacities, spot shortages, and increased
preorder activity from the chipmakers, no one can forecast exactly when
business will truly start improving across the board. While advanced
fabs may be getting better at monitoring the health of their equipment,
predicting run-to-run variations, and tightly controlling processes,
the same can't be said of the industry's ability to accurately predict
the timing of the long-awaited upturn. Many variables, especially macroeconomic
and geopolitical ones, have made semiconductor company executives extremely
reticent to sign off on capital spending.
There
did seem to be a growing consensus that if the chipmaking companies
wait until the last minute (whenever that might be) to make their
large-scale purchasing decisions, the enervated capital equipment
and critical materials supply chain may not be able to support the
speed of the resultant ramp-up. Recently anointed Applied Materials
honcho Mike Splinter emphasized that the customers must be convinced
of "having capacity in advance of the upturn." Three years of famine
makes one hungry yet weak, after all.
Several
companies I met with seemed rejuvenated and poised to capitalize on
opportunities when the orders do start flooding in. The new management
team at Therma-Wave, led by industry veteran Boris Lipkin, has cleaned
house and more than tripled the number of customers ordering their
products in recent months. They believe the company is ready to grab
a large portion of what will be a $2 billion–plus market for
its suite of integrated fabwide thin-film and lithography metrology
tools. Said Lipkin: "Our customers want us to succeed."
Mattson,
whose M&A binge at the start of the downturn nearly led to the
company's collapse, has returned to its solid core of RTP and dry
strip systems, reenergized its customer relations, streamlined its
operations, and drastically improved its balance sheet. One linchpin
of the Mattson strategy is razor-sharp technical expertise, underscored
by what CEO and president Dave Dutton called a focus on "delivering
what happens on the wafer surface."
Speaking
of the wafer surface, two upstart companies' products look very closely
at what goes on down there. Speedworks Software, one of 16 participants
in the inaugural Technology Innovation Showcase, has developed a grain
structure analysis (GSA) technique that uses spatial intelligence
to extract process attributes from graphical images. According to
sales and marketing director Jon Poreda, GSA allows the user to analyze
and characterize the grain structure of a device layer in a matter
of minutes, which then helps optimize the process and improve productivity
as well as yields.
HyperNex's
AutoTex tool (codeveloped with IBM) also inspects microstructures
on the wafer, providing process monitoring of crystallographic phase
and texture. President Dave Kurtz noted that although off-line analyses
prove that microstructures are a major driver of stress voids and
other flaws in copper, analytical tools such as x-ray diffraction
are slow and not fab ready. He says his company's system can augment
those tools and play an effective process control and yield enhancement
role in advanced interconnect applications.
One
anecdote I heard suggested that the recovery has already started.
As I munched on my crepe in the back corner of Moscone Center's South
Hall, I shared a stand-up café table with an Intel engineer.
During our chat, he said the water fountain had recently been turned
back on at corporate—a sure sign that the upturn had begun.
Let
the orders start to flow.
Tom Cheyney
Editor
tom.cheyney@cancom.com
