While
many people use the calendar new year as an opportunity to step
back and take stock of their lives, look back on the year about
to end, and make resolutions for the year to come, the business
world's fiscal-year schedules provoke different reflection cycles.
Our company's fiscal ends Sept. 30, so lately I've been busy with
industry and competitive analyses, budgeting, and preliminary
planning for the coming year. Since Semicon West is just around
the corner, I've also been trying to get a handle on what topics,
trends, and companies might dominate discussion at the show. In
many cases, the internal evaluation and strategizing ties in neatly
with the final push to the Moscone Center mayhem.
The
news of WorldCom's financial shenanigans only hit the wires a
few days ago, so the full range of fallout from its accounting
malfeasances is unclear. Concerns over a ripple effect undulating
down to the chipmakers have been raised, largely in terms of possible
negative impacts on telecom equipment companies such as Juniper
Networks, Cisco, and the like, prime customers of many semiconductor
companies. The communications IC and optical networking sectors
were already forecast to have flat growth this year, and WorldCom's
downfall could have deleterious consequences for that sector as
well as for the recovery of the entire semiconductor space.
But
the immediate or longer-term financial impact of WorldCom's fall
from grace, albeit large, is not what troubles me most. For several
months, fresh revelations of corporate misbehavior and corruption
have been reported on an almost daily basis. Public and investor
confidence in big business has been pummeled. The question in
many observers' minds is, how many more scandals will be exposed?
For those of us keeping tabs on the semiconductor manufacturers
and their suppliers, will yet-to-be-exposed corporate accounting
frauds turn up in our backyard? One can only hope that the industry's
relatively clean financial reputation will stand up and the sector
will weather the storm.
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* * * *
Whether
the lingering stench of scandal fills the air or a clean breeze
is blowing, and whether an up or down cycle has the industry by
the short and curlies, the approach of Semicon West always means
an increase in product launches and corporate chest-beating from
equipment and materials suppliers. This year's been no different,
and recent news items foreshadow likely talking points at the
show.
Applied
Materials has made its usual slew of showtime product-line announcements,
including one bound to generate intense discussion: the launch
of Oasis Clean, the first tool in the capital-equipment behemoth's
fledgling wet cleaning unit. MICRO got the 411 on the new system
in time for us to include it in this issue's Industry News section
(see related story on page 22), but the reactions of other players
in the cleaning space are still coming in. Hot on Applied's heels
and right after we went to press with our news section, FSI announced
its initial foray into immersion cleaning with its new automated
platform, Magellan.
The
two launches should intensify the discussion over one of the cleaning
sector's great debates: batch versus single-wafer. Don't expect
a resolution of that argument anytime soon. The various cleans
and strips make up the largest number of process steps in a chipmaking
line (about a quarter of the steps in the transistor-creation
process alone), and no single methodwet or dry, immersion or
spray or scrubber, batch or single waferwill be the ultimate
solution for the entire range of FEOL and BEOL cleaning requirements.
On the market-share side, the big question is how Applied's entry
will affect the somewhat-fragmented cleaning segment of the tool
business. Will Applied be just another face in the crowd along
with current market leader Dainippon Screen and a dozen or so
other players, or will the tool giant eventually gain a dominant
share as they have in CMP over the past five years? Equipment
market watchers will keep their eyes peeled on how the cleaning
tool sector shakes out now that the big dog's in the yard.
Tom Cheyney
Editor
tom.cheyney@cancom.com